Buy Ford, Sell GM, Hold Toyota (but don't take investment advice from me...)



By Jon Miller | Post Date: January 6, 2007 8:19 PM | Comments: 5

General Motors Chief Executive Rick Wagoner has been in the news this week with fighting words:

β€œI like being No. 1, and I think our people take pride in it,” Wagoner said this week. β€œIt's not something we're going to sit back and let somebody else pass us by.”

We are talking here about being the number one producer of automobiles by volume and not number one by reputation, quality, profit or growth. The article quotes Mr. Wagoner as saying that GM still has production capacity. This makes me worried for GM. They do not have a problem with supply, they have a problem with demand.

I am in the middle of translating Taiichi Ohno's Gemba Keiei into English at the moment and many times he says "We do not make what will not sell." What Ohno is saying is not that Toyota never builds an automobile before they have a firm sale with a live human customer, but that the processes in their factories and their supply chains operate on a pull system and that no production is authorized without the downstream process (the customer) consuming the part and giving a pull signal.

This is called the downstream pull system. This is such a simple theory that many manufacturers who learn it mistakenly think that they do it. Of the automotive manufacturers, only Toyota has insisted on a pull system for decades and built it into how they sell and build cars. This and their relentless focus on kaizen to reduce cost and improve quality is why Toyota is in a position to become number one, and not because they are building factories faster than anyone else.

Mr. Wagoner fails to understand that the goal for the General Motors Corporation is absolutely positively definitely and without a doubt not to remain in the number one spot on the basis of the number of automobiles produced in one year. Unless all of these vehicles are sold, and unless the company is profitable and is generating free cash flow as a result, being number one is pointless for GM. Toyota understands this, and that is why they will displace GM as number one. That is also why Toyota is playing down this issue.

GM and its employees are taking pride in the wrong things, apparently. What about pride in quality products and pride in profitability? The primary goal isn't market share, unless you're so screwed up like GM where you have excess capacity that you'd better fill, or you have to pay employees to not work.

Toyota DOES build product for dealer orders where an end driver/customer hasn't yet ordered it... so saying "never" builds without a human order depends on what your definition of human customer order means.

Poster: Mark Graban | Post Date: January 7, 2007 10:04 AM

You're right about Toyota building product to forecast. That is what Ohno said. I think you missed the "not" in:

What Ohno is saying is not that Toyota never builds an automobile before they have a firm sale with a live human customer

Poster: Jon Miller | Post Date: January 7, 2007 11:09 AM

Gotcha. Double negatives aren't very lean! :-)

Poster: Mark Graban | Post Date: January 7, 2007 5:21 PM

There is still a lot of opportunity for improvement at Toyota. The fact that they do build to dealer orders without an actual customer order alludes to the fact that there is still waste in their system. I personally would like them to remove more waste and lower the prices customers have to pay for their products.

Onosan talked about type I, II, and III companies in the New Production System Book. He was most interested in the ones who did not keep even final product inventory.

Poster: Barry | Post Date: January 8, 2007 4:27 AM

Toyota Motor Manufacturing builds cars based on orders from Toyota Motor Sales, which orders cars based on dealer orders, which are based on forcasted customer sales. Toyota is apparently much better at this than GM, because according to the 12/11/2006 inventory data from Automotive News, Toyota had a 41 day inventory vs GM's 91 day supply of cars and light trucks and an industry average of 73 days. Toyota must be making what the customer wants because the cars they build spend less time on dealers' lots. That does not mean that there is not room for improvement, but the only company that had a lower inventory level than Toyota was BMW with a 25 day supply.

Personally I think that GM should not focus on maintaining the #1 rank in vehicles produced. As long as they are losing an average of almost $2,500 per vehicle (according to the 2006 Harbour Report), each additional vehicle made only helps spread the "legacy costs" out (assuming vehicles don't have to be further discounted because supply is higher than demand), and does nothing to actually reduce cost. It is important to remember one of the reasons behind JIT - reducing cost per part has no impact if the parts are not sold at a price that recoups the cost.

Poster: Jon Nett | Post Date: January 8, 2007 6:51 PM
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